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of company officials about actual intentions of the company is irrelevant or is to be looked upon with suspicion; but it does mean that theirs is not necessarily the last

entering the Northeast, and had, among other ways, see n. 8, supra, made its interest known by prior-acquisition discussions. Moreover, there were, as my Brother MARSHALL would put it, objective economic facts as to Falstaff's capability to enter the New England market; and the same facts which he would have the District Court look to in determining whether the particular theory of potential competition we do not reach has been violated, would be probative of violation of § 7 through loss of a procompetitive on-the-fringe influence. See FTC v. Procter & Gamble Co., supra, at 580-581; United States v. Penn-Olin Chemical Co., supra, at 173-177; United States v. El Paso Natural Gas Co., 376 U. S. 651, 660 (1964).

And as for the contention that the Government did not proceed under this on-the-fringe influence view, the record is to the contrary. At one point in the trial, the Government informed the trial judge that a deposition was being introduced into evidence "to establish that Falstaff was a company that was on the wings or at the edge of the New England market. What I mean by that is that Falstaff was capable and interested in entering the New England market and would be waiting for the opportunity to develop, but that Falstaff, over the long term, would eventually or could eventually or was a likely entrant into the New England market, to use the terminology in FTC v. Procter & Gamble Company." App. 124. Further into its presentation of proof, the Government was introducing evidence of the trend toward concentration in the market, and stated: "It is this concentration, your Honor, which, as we attempted to point out in our pretrial brief, makes potential competition. The concentration of sales within a small number of firms in New England. This is what makes the potential competition

very, very important to this market.

...

...

SO

In such a situation the potential entry of a fresh competitive factor is of extreme importance." App. 170.

That the on-the-fringe influence theory was one of the theories the Government was proceeding under was apparent to Falstaff. In its opening statement, Falstaff stated:

"Now, the Government has a theory which is, so far as the judicial determinations on the point are concerned, comparatively new. You were handed the other day a portion of the record in FTC against Bendix-Fram Corporation, and you were handed at the

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word in arriving at a conclusion about how Falstaff should be considered in terms of its status as a potential entrant into the market in issue.

same time a typed or otherwise reproduced copy of the opinion of Commissioner Elman of the FTC in that case.

"That opinion is not yet officially reported. The case is on its way to an appeal The Commissioner announced a theory upon which the Government relies and which they say lies within the ambit of this vague, undefined creature, potential competition. What that decision, on appeal as I say, what that decision announces is the doctrine which is called the toe-hold doctrine, and it goes like this:

"If a producer of Product A is standing in the wings, as the Commissioner says, outside the market, merely standing there, but in a position to move into the market if he chooses. He must remain there in the wings and forbear acquiring the producer of a like product within the market area.

"The Commissioner fancies that the mere presence of such a manufacturer or seller close to the market area had some effect which could fall within his ill-defined concept of potential competition. And he found in Bendix-Fram that Bendix was in such a position. He found that Bendix could have acquired a small company rather than Fram, a relatively larger one, beefed it up by expenditures of money which Bendix could afford, and develop it into a full-blown competitor within the market area. I do not know whether that notion will gain substantial acceptance in the theory of antitrust law. I do not know that it will have the approval of the Supreme Court if and when it ever reaches it. I do know, however, that that is an entirely different situation [than] we have here.

"If there is any sense to this total theory at all it must be that the acquiring company was in fact so closely located to the market served by the acquired company that its entrance into the market unilaterally, under its own steam, without motivation was a distinct threat to those who were competing in the market." App. 182-183. (Emphasis added.)

Falstaff then proceeded to state why it felt that the on-the-fringe influence theory did not apply in this case.

During its proof, Falstaff had both its expert witness on economics, App. 257, and an officer of Narragansett, App. 376, testify as to whether Falstaff's presence had a procompetitive effect, both stating that it did not.

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Since it appears that the District Court entertained too narrow a view of Falstaff as a potential competitor and since it appears that the District Court's conclusion that the merger posed no probable threat to competition followed automatically from the finding that Falstaff had no intent to enter de novo, we remand this case for the District Court to make the proper assessment of Falstaff as a potential competitor.

II

Because we remand for proper assessment of Falstaff as an on-the-fringe potential competitor, it is not necessary to reach the question of whether § 7 bars a market-extension merger by a company whose entry into the market would have no influence whatsoever on the present state of competition in the market that is, the entrant will not be a dominant force in the market and has no current influence in the marketplace. We leave for another day the question of the applicability of § 7 to a merger that will leave competition in the marketplace exactly as it was, neither hurt nor helped, and that is challengeable under § 7 only on grounds that the company could, but did not, enter de novo or through "toe-hold" acquisition and that there is less competition than there would have been had entry been in such a manner. There are traces of this view in our cases, see Ford Motor Co. v. United States, 405 U. S. 562, 567 (1972); id., at 587 (BURGER, C. J., concurring in part and dissenting in part); FTC v. Procter & Gamble Co., 386 U. S., at 580; id., at 586 (Harlan, J., concurring); United States v. Penn-Olin Chemical Co., 378 U. S., at 173, but the Court has not squarely faced the question," if for no other reason than because there has

14 It is suggested that certain language in the Court's opinior in United States v. Continental Can Co., 378 U. S. 441, 464 (1964), is to the contrary. But there the merger was held proved prima facie

DOUGLAS, J., concurring in part

410 U.S.

been no necessity to consider it. See Ford Motor Co. v. United States, supra; FTC v. Procter & Gamble Co., supra; United States v. Penn-Olin Chemical Co., supra; United States v. El Paso Natural Gas Co., 376 U. S. 651 (1964).

The judgment of the District Court dismissing the complaint against Falstaff is reversed, and the case is remanded for further proceedings consistent with this opinion.

So ordered.

MR. JUSTICE BRENNAN took no part in the decision of this case. MR. JUSTICE POWELL took no part in the consideration or decision of this case.

MR. JUSTICE DOUGLAS, concurring in part.

Although I join Part I of the Court's opinion and its judgment remanding the case to the District Court for further proceedings consistent with the opinion, I offer the following observations with respect to the question which the Court does not reach.

There can be no question that it would be sufficient for the Government to prove its case to show that Falstaff would have made a de novo entry but for the acquisition of Narragansett or that Falstaff was a potential competitor exercising present influence on the market. See Ford Motor Co. v. United States, 405 U. S. 562; FTC v. Procter & Gamble Co., 386 U. S. 568; United States v. Penn-Olin Chemical Co., 378 U. S. 158; United States v. El Paso Natural Gas Co., 376 U. S. 651. But, I do not believe that it was a prerequisite to the Gov

anticompetitive because the acquiring and acquired companies were engaged in the same overall line of commerce in the same geographic market. This notwithstanding, it is again only arbitrary to assume that the quoted language was not referring to the acquired company's on-the-fringe influence as a potential competitor for certain end uses for containers.

526

DOUGLAS, J., concurring in part

ernment's case to prove that the acquisition had marked immediate, i. e., present, anticompetitive effects.

Section 7 evidences a definite concern for protecting competitive markets. It does not require "merely an appraisal of the immediate impact of the merger upon competition, but a prediction of its impact upon competitive conditions in the future...." United States v. Philadelphia National Bank, 374 U. S. 321, 362. In United States v. Penn-Olin Chemical Co., supra, at 170171, the Court said:

"The grand design of the original § 7, as to stock acquisitions, as well as the Celler-Kefauver Amendment, as to the acquisition of assets, was to arrest incipient threats to competition which the Sherman Act did not ordinarily reach. It follows that actual restraints need not be proved. The requirements of the amendment are satisfied when a 'tendency' toward monopoly or the 'reasonable likelihood' of a substantial lessening of competition in the relevant market is shown."

Moreover, we are concerned with probabilities, not certainties. See Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U. S. 294, 323.

Falstaff acquired Narragansett in 1965. Prior to that time, Falstaff was the largest brewer in the country that did not sell in the New England market. It had stated publicly that it wanted to become a national brewer to allow it to compete more effectively with the existing national brewers. Falstaff has conceded in its brief that "given an acceptable level of profit it had the financial capability and the interest to enter the New England beer market."

During the four years preceding 1965, beer sales in New England had increased approximately 9.5%. Nevertheless, the market had become more concentrated. In 1960, the eight largest sellers accounted for approximately

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